Renewables in Central Europe -
Overview.
The new EU Energy proposals for 2020 call for rapid expansion
of renewables across the EU. Some of the new EU countries in Central
and Eastern Europe are clearly seen as making significant contributions.
The EC’s proposed renewable energy targets for 2020 include
42% for Latvia, one of the highest, and several other new EU countries
have high renewables targets- Estonia 25%, Lithuania 23%, Romania
24%, and Slovenia 25%.
How likely is it that targets will be achieved?
The potential is certainly huge. For 2020, the European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has reported estimates
from consultants Black and Veatch for wind potential as follows:
Poland 4GW, the Czech Republic 2.2GW, Hungary 2GW, and the total
for the new EU altogether is maybe around 30GW.
Many also have very large biomass potential for producing electricity.
For example Bulgaria 3.5GW and Poland 4.2GW by 2020, as well as
major existing hydro programmes.
So how far have they got with expansion?
By 2006 Poland has installed 152.5 MW of wind capacity, Hungary
61MW, the Czech Republic 50MW, Lithuania 55.5MW- the rest lesser
amounts - in all under 400MW.
Wind isn’t the only option.
In 2005, Latvia, with its major hydro input (75% of its power),
had already reached its EU 2010 target for renewable electricity,
and most of rest of Central and Eastern Europe were also doing
well, reaching well over 50% of their 2010 targets
By contrast, in ‘Old’ Europe, although Sweden, Denmark,
Austria and Germany - as well as Finland - were doing very well,
by 2005 most of the rest of ‘Old’ EU countries were
still below 50% of their 2010 targets.
Some of the new EU countries might do even better in terms of
energy, since they have large biomass heat resources. But it may
be that, in order to meet its ambitious targets, the EU will have
to make use of the new Guarantee of Origin scheme to import credits
from outside the EU.
So what are the prospects for the future?
The big hope is that, under the right conditions, renewables
could develop as much in the East as in the West - or maybe even
more. The reality is more complex. There are many obstacles -
technical, financial and institutional.
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